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      "pattern_id": "bubble_euphoria",
      "precedents": "1999-2000 (4/5), 2007 (4/5), 2021 (5/5 — margin debt/GDP 3.9%, máximo histórico).",
      "reference_section": "4.8",
      "suggested_action": "Reducir gradualmente exposición a high-beta. Aumentar tail hedges (put spreads, VIX calls). Considerar Quality > Growth. No shortear prematuramente — las burbujas pueden persistir.",
      "total": 5
    },
    {
      "conditions": [
        {
          "condition_id": "vix_panic",
          "observation_date": "2026-10-15",
          "observed": 16.46,
          "outcome": "not_met",
          "reason": null
        },
        {
          "condition_id": "aaii_capitulation",
          "observation_date": null,
          "observed": null,
          "outcome": "not_evaluable",
          "reason": "series_gapped"
        },
        {
          "condition_id": "put_call_hedging",
          "observation_date": null,
          "observed": null,
          "outcome": "not_evaluable",
          "reason": "series_gapped"
        },
        {
          "condition_id": "investors_intelligence_capitulation",
          "observation_date": null,
          "observed": null,
          "outcome": "not_evaluable",
          "reason": "series_gapped"
        }
      ],
      "display_name": "Capitulación / suelo potencial de mercado",
      "met": 0,
      "not_evaluable": 3,
      "not_met": 1,
      "pattern_id": "capitulation",
      "precedents": "Mar. 2009 (4/4, S&P +68% en 12M), Mar. 2020 (4/4, +75%), Oct. 2022 (3/4, +22%).",
      "reference_section": "4.2",
      "suggested_action": "Señal contrarian alcista de alta convicción. Considerar incrementar exposición a equity, especialmente growth y small caps (mayor beta al alza).",
      "total": 4
    },
    {
      "conditions": [
        {
          "condition_id": "dxy_extreme",
          "observation_date": "2026-10-09",
          "observed": 121.6023,
          "outcome": "met",
          "reason": null
        },
        {
          "condition_id": "hy_oas_global_aversion",
          "observation_date": "2026-10-15",
          "observed": 3.23,
          "outcome": "not_met",
          "reason": null
        },
        {
          "condition_id": "vix_risk_off",
          "observation_date": "2026-10-15",
          "observed": 16.46,
          "outcome": "not_met",
          "reason": null
        },
        {
          "condition_id": "nfci_stress",
          "observation_date": "2026-10-09",
          "observed": -0.499,
          "outcome": "not_met",
          "reason": null
        }
      ],
      "display_name": "Estrés de mercados emergentes",
      "met": 1,
      "not_evaluable": 0,
      "not_met": 3,
      "pattern_id": "emerging_market_stress",
      "precedents": "1997-98 (Asia/Rusia, DXY 93→103), 2015-16 (commodity crash, DXY 80→103), 2022 (DXY 96→115, Sri Lanka, Ghana, intervención BOJ).",
      "reference_section": "4.5",
      "suggested_action": "Infraponderar EM equity y deuda. Infraponderar commodities industriales. Sobreponderar USD, Treasuries, oro.",
      "total": 4
    },
    {
      "conditions": [
        {
          "condition_id": "curve_inverted",
          "observation_date": "2026-10-16",
          "observed": 0.35,
          "outcome": "not_met",
          "reason": null
        },
        {
          "condition_id": "sloos_tightening",
          "observation_date": "2026-07-01",
          "observed": 0.0,
          "outcome": "not_met",
          "reason": null
        },
        {
          "condition_id": "hy_oas_stress",
          "observation_date": "2026-10-15",
          "observed": 3.23,
          "outcome": "not_met",
          "reason": null
        },
        {
          "condition_id": "lei_contraction",
          "observation_date": "2026-09-01",
          "observed": 1.3079,
          "outcome": "not_met",
          "reason": null
        }
      ],
      "display_name": "Recesión de alta convicción",
      "met": 0,
      "not_evaluable": 0,
      "not_met": 4,
      "pattern_id": "high_conviction_recession",
      "precedents": "1990 (4/4), 2001 (4/4), 2007-08 (4/4), 2020 (3/4 — SLOOS retrasado por velocidad del shock).",
      "reference_section": "4.1",
      "suggested_action": "Reducir exposición a cíclicas, small caps y HY; aumentar Treasuries y defensivos. Consultar Fidelity Late Cycle / Recession tilts (§11.2).",
      "total": 4
    },
    {
      "conditions": [
        {
          "condition_id": "t5yifr_hawkish",
          "observation_date": "2026-10-16",
          "observed": 2.33,
          "outcome": "not_met",
          "reason": null
        },
        {
          "condition_id": "prices_paid_severe",
          "observation_date": "2026-10-01",
          "observed": 43.2,
          "outcome": "not_met",
          "reason": null
        },
        {
          "condition_id": "m2_excess",
          "observation_date": "2026-08-01",
          "observed": 4.9124,
          "outcome": "not_met",
          "reason": null
        },
        {
          "condition_id": "mich_unanchored",
          "observation_date": "2026-08-01",
          "observed": 4.0,
          "outcome": "met",
          "reason": null
        }
      ],
      "display_name": "Cambio de régimen inflacionario",
      "met": 1,
      "not_evaluable": 0,
      "not_met": 3,
      "pattern_id": "inflation_regime_change",
      "precedents": "2021-22 (4/4 — catalizó ciclo de subidas más agresivo desde Volcker), 1978-79 (3/4).",
      "reference_section": "4.4",
      "suggested_action": "Rotar hacia valor, energy, materials, commodities. Reducir duración de renta fija. Considerar TIPS. Monitorear T5YIFR > 2.75% como señal de desanclaje severo.",
      "total": 4
    },
    {
      "conditions": [
        {
          "condition_id": "nfci_loose",
          "observation_date": "2026-10-09",
          "observed": -0.499,
          "outcome": "met",
          "reason": null
        },
        {
          "condition_id": "m2_golden_rate",
          "observation_date": "2026-08-01",
          "observed": 4.9124,
          "outcome": "not_met",
          "reason": null
        },
        {
          "condition_id": "dxy_weak",
          "observation_date": "2026-10-09",
          "observed": 121.6023,
          "outcome": "not_met",
          "reason": null
        },
        {
          "condition_id": "activity_expansion",
          "observation_date": "2026-10-01",
          "observed": 20.9,
          "outcome": "met",
          "reason": null
        },
        {
          "condition_id": "ism_new_orders_inv",
          "observation_date": null,
          "observed": null,
          "outcome": "not_evaluable",
          "reason": "condition_not_expressible"
        }
      ],
      "display_name": "Entorno favorable para riesgo (risk-on macro)",
      "met": 2,
      "not_evaluable": 1,
      "not_met": 2,
      "pattern_id": "risk_on_macro",
      "precedents": "2004-06 (pre-excesos), 2013-14, 2017, 2024H1.",
      "reference_section": "4.3",
      "suggested_action": "Sobreponderar equities (especialmente cíclicas, EM, small caps); sobreponderar commodities. Tilts alineados con Fidelity Early/Mid Cycle (§11.2) y Bridgewater Cuadrante 1-2 (§11.1).",
      "total": 5
    },
    {
      "conditions": [
        {
          "condition_id": "activity_stabilizing",
          "observation_date": "2026-10-01",
          "observed": 20.9,
          "outcome": "not_met",
          "reason": null
        },
        {
          "condition_id": "initial_claims_healthy",
          "observation_date": "2026-10-10",
          "observed": 198500.0,
          "outcome": "not_met",
          "reason": null
        },
        {
          "condition_id": "nfci_supportive",
          "observation_date": "2026-10-09",
          "observed": -0.499,
          "outcome": "met",
          "reason": null
        },
        {
          "condition_id": "t5yifr_anchored",
          "observation_date": "2026-10-16",
          "observed": 2.33,
          "outcome": "met",
          "reason": null
        },
        {
          "condition_id": "sloos_normal",
          "observation_date": "2026-07-01",
          "observed": 0.0,
          "outcome": "met",
          "reason": null
        }
      ],
      "display_name": "Soft landing / goldilocks",
      "met": 3,
      "not_evaluable": 0,
      "not_met": 2,
      "pattern_id": "soft_landing",
      "precedents": "1995 (soft landing exitoso), 2019 (pre-COVID), 2024 (en debate).",
      "reference_section": "4.7",
      "suggested_action": "Mantener exposición balanced. Favorecer quality y dividendos. Bonos intermedios atractivos si curva se normaliza.",
      "total": 5
    },
    {
      "conditions": [
        {
          "condition_id": "walcl_qt_active",
          "observation_date": "2026-10-14",
          "observed": 9091.0,
          "outcome": "not_met",
          "reason": null
        },
        {
          "condition_id": "rrp_frictional_floor",
          "observation_date": "2026-10-16",
          "observed": 0.1,
          "outcome": "met",
          "reason": null
        },
        {
          "condition_id": "tga_aggressive_drain",
          "observation_date": "2026-10-14",
          "observed": 883373.0,
          "outcome": "not_met",
          "reason": null
        },
        {
          "condition_id": "bank_reserves_scarcity",
          "observation_date": "2026-10-14",
          "observed": 3030854.0,
          "outcome": "not_met",
          "reason": null
        }
      ],
      "display_name": "Triple drenaje de liquidez",
      "met": 1,
      "not_evaluable": 0,
      "not_met": 3,
      "pattern_id": "triple_liquidity_drain",
      "precedents": "Sept. 2019 (3/4 — reservas < 7% PIB), parcialmente en Q3 2023.",
      "reference_section": "4.6",
      "suggested_action": "Aumentar cash y Treasuries cortos. Reducir activos ilíquidos. Monitorear SOFR y spreads de mercado monetario para señales de estrés en plomería financiera.",
      "total": 4
    }
  ],
  "schema_version": 2
}